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物价指数走稳2019年CPI涨幅实现预期目标
2020-03-01 15:19  www.goodwikis.com

  国家统计局1月9日公布2019年12月全国CPI(居民消费价格指数)数据。从环比看,12月CPI由11月上涨%转为持平。从同比看,CPI上涨%,涨幅与11月相同,其中,食品价格上涨%,非食品价格上涨%。2019年CPI比2018年上涨%,实现了CPI涨幅控制在3%左右的预期目标。

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the December 2019 national CPI (Consumer Price Index for Residents) on January 9. On a month-on-month basis, December CPI moved from November's rise per cent to flat. On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose%, the same as in November, with food prices up% and non-food prices up%. CPI rose% from 2018 in 2019, meeting its expected target of keeping CPI inflation at around 3%.

  2019年12月CPI环比由涨转平,食品价格特别是猪肉价格由涨转降成为主要因素之一。国家统计局城市司高级统计师沈赟分析称,食品价格由11月上涨%转为下降%,影响CPI下降约个百分点。随着生猪生产出现积极变化,中央和地方储备猪肉陆续投放,进口量有所增加,猪肉供给紧张状况进一步缓解,价格由11月上涨%转为下降%,影响CPI下降约个百分点。在猪肉价格下降影响下,牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅分别由%和%回落至%和%,鸡肉和鸭肉价格分别由上涨%和%转为下降%和%。

In December 2019, the CPI rose and flattened, with food prices, especially pork, one of the main factors. Shen Yun, senior statistician at the city division of the National Bureau of Statistics, said food prices had shifted from a rise in November to a fall in%, affecting the CPI by about a percentage point. With the positive changes in pig production, the central and local reserves of pork have been put in, the volume of imports has increased, the tight supply of pork has been further alleviated, and prices have shifted from a rise of% in November to a decline of%, affecting the CPI by about a percentage point. Under the impact of a drop in pork prices, beef and lamb prices fell back from% and% to% and chicken and duck prices from up% and% to down% and%, respectively.

  从同比看,2019年12月CPI上涨%,涨幅与11月相同。其中,食品价格上涨%,涨幅回落个百分点,影响CPI上涨约个百分点。食品中,鲜果价格下降%,降幅扩大个百分点。猪肉价格上涨%,涨幅回落个百分点。牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、鸭肉和鸡蛋价格涨幅在%至%之间,均有不同程度回落。鲜菜价格上涨%,涨幅有所扩大。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨%,涨幅与上月相同。

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose% in December 2019, the same as in November. Among them, food prices rose%, the increase fell a percentage point, affecting CPI rise about a percentage point. In food, fresh fruit prices fell by%, expanding by a percentage point. Pork prices rose%, or a percentage point. Beef, lamb, chicken, duck and egg prices rose between% and%, all falling to varying degrees. The price of fresh vegetables rose by%, an increase that has widened. The core CPI, which deducts food and energy prices, rose% year-on-year, the same as last month.

  “在国家加大调节力度、做好猪肉保供稳价工作的背景下,春节前猪肉价格快速上行的风险得到了控制。”华泰证券宏观首席分析师李超表示。

“The risk of a rapid rise in pork prices prior to the Spring Festival has been controlled in the context of greater state regulation and a good job of securing and stabilizing pork prices. Huatai Securities macro chief analyst Li Chao said.

  不过,未来短期内物价仍存在一定上涨压力。中国民生银行首席研究员温彬指出,一方面,春节来临将继续推动食品价格上涨,高频数据显示,进入2020年1月以来,猪肉价格略有上涨,农产品菜篮子价格亦呈上涨趋势。另一方面,国际环境不稳定不确定因素增加,布伦特原油现货价一度冲破70美元/桶,下阶段仍有继续上涨可能。

However, there is still some upward pressure on prices in the short term. Wen Bin, chief researcher at Minsheng Bank of China, said that on the one hand, the arrival of the Spring Festival will continue to drive up food prices, with high-frequency data showing a slight rise in pork prices and an upward trend in the prices of agricultural basket since January 2020. On the other hand, uncertainties in the international environment have increased, with the current price of Brent crude oil breaking through $70 per barrel, and there is still the possibility that it will continue to rise in the next phase.

  “猪肉供给逐步恢复,油价难以持续回升,对通胀无需过度担忧。”西南证券杨业伟则表示,当前生猪存栏和能繁母猪存栏均在稳步修复,春节可能短暂推升猪价,节后猪肉价格将逐步回落并带动通胀下行。

“Pork supply is gradually recovering, oil prices are unlikely to continue to rise, and there is no need to worry too much about inflation. Yang yewei, a southwestern securities firm, said the current stock of pig stocks and sow stocks are being steadily restored, the spring festival may briefly push up pig prices, pork prices will gradually fall after the festival and drive inflation down.

  展望2020年,机构普遍认为,伴随生猪产能逐步恢复,2020年下半年之后猪肉价格有可能出现快速回落态势,CPI涨幅将随之下行。

Looking ahead to 2020, the agency generally believes that with pig capacity gradually recovering, pork prices are likely to fall quickly after the second half of 2020, CPI increases will follow.

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,考虑到2019年影响CPI走势的主要是猪肉价格及替代品价格大幅上涨,而非食品价格变化不大且走势稳定,因此判断2020年CPI走势,猪瘟疫情的变化是关键因素。预计2020年CPI走势将“前高后低”,全年同比涨幅仍有望控制在%左右。

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said that given that the main factor affecting CPI in 2019 was a sharp rise in pork prices and alternatives prices, rather than a small and stable change in food prices, judging the 2020 CPI trend, the change in the swine fever epidemic is a key factor. CPI is expected to be \"high before and low\" in 2020, with year-on-year gains still expected to be around%.